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The AFC and NFC conference championships are here! Sunday’s slate starts with surging rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders taking on the Philadelphia Eagles. Then the Kansas City Chiefs will host MVP contender Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to both games, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup X factor to watch, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. The ESPN Research team also provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Finally, three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.
Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the full conference slate.
Jump to a matchup:
WSH-PHI | BUF-KC
3 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -6 (47.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: It’ll be interesting to see how Washington handles defensive tackle Jalen Carter and running back Saquon Barkley. Commanders right guard Sam Cosmi, who faced Carter in the first two meetings against the Eagles, tore his right ACL against the Lions and is done for the season. Now it’s uncertain who will start there, but the replacement won’t be at Cosmi’s level and must handle one of the best defenders in the NFL. As for Barkley, he gained 130 yards and three touchdowns on just three of his carries versus Washington this season — and 26 others went for 2 yards or less. — John Keim
Eagles storyline to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts injured his left knee in last week’s divisional round playoff win over the Rams. He rushed six times for 71 yards before being wrestled down awkwardly in the third quarter; his only rushing stats afterward came on a kneel-down to end the game. Barkley said he expects “Jalen to be Jalen,” but questions remain about just how mobile Hurts will be in the title game. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: This is the fifth NFC Championship Game between NFC East teams, and the first since 1986. The previous two winners (1982 Washington and 1986 Giants) won the Super Bowl, too. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Barkley and Hurts will combine for at least 42 rushing attempts. No team in the league invites opponents to rush more than the Commanders, who play nickel 95% of the time against 12 and 21 personnel. Washington has a negative-10% pass rate over expectation, lowest in the NFL. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Commanders wide receiver Dyami Brown. Brown has added a big-play element to the Commanders’ pass game as a third-level target for quarterback Jayden Daniels. In Washington’s two playoff wins, Brown caught 11 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. Look for Commanders’ offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to set up Brown on concepts that attack both split-safety and man coverage. — Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Eagles
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 5-3 outright and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs this season with three straight outright wins. The Eagles have won nine straight home games (5-4 ATS). Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Shawn Hochuli worked the Commanders’ Week 15 victory over the Saints. His crew flagged Washington 10 times, including twice for roughing the passer. He also worked the Eagles’ Week 6 victory over the Browns, throwing five flags against Philadelphia, including once for roughing the passer. Overall, he tied for the third-most flags for roughing the passer (9). — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 31 Eagles 30
Moody’s pick: Commanders 34, Eagles 30
Walder’s pick: Eagles 30, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 63.7% (by an average of 5.1 points)
6:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -2 (47.5 O/U)
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills finally take down the Chiefs in the playoffs after losing three straight to Kansas City in the postseason? The Bills will have to go against history to do so, having lost seven straight road playoff games. The ability to limit quarterback Patrick Mahomes will play a large role, especially given Buffalo’s strength at forcing takeaways. In Buffalo’s regular-season win over Kansas City, Mahomes threw two interceptions. However, the Chiefs have gone eight straight games, including the playoffs, without committing a turnover. — Alaina Getzenberg
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs will put extra emphasis on third-down defense against the Bills, who converted 9-of-15 on third downs in their Week 11 win over Kansas City. That led to Buffalo holding an advantage of 71 offensive plays to 52 and a time of possession edge of 34 minutes to 26. Getting Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense off the field will take some creativity from defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a strong pass rush like the Chiefs showed last week, when they sacked Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times. — Adam Teicher
2:14
Orlovsky makes ‘Rocky IV’ comparison for Josh Allen vs. Chiefs
Dan Orlovsky breaks down what is at stake for Josh Allen’s legacy in the AFC Championship Game between the Bills and the Chiefs.
Stat to know: The Bills have committed the fewest turnovers in NFL this season (8) while also producing a league-high 35 takeaways, including the regular season and the playoffs. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chiefs running back Samaje Perine will record at least four receptions, matching a season-high mark for him. Twenty-one percent of targets against the Bills have gone to running backs this year — third highest in the league. And since I’m also predicting a Bills victory, I think the Chiefs will find themselves in more passing situations than usual. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis. Limiting Allen’s ability to get to the edges of the pocket, where he can create as a both a runner and thrower, is critical for the Chiefs defense. Karlaftis, who had three sacks in the divisional round, will be tasked with containing Allen and generating pressure late in the down. — Bowen
Betting nugget: Allen and Mahomes are 4-4 outright and ATS against each other. But Mahomes is 3-0 outright and ATS in the playoffs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Clete Blakeman has been the referee for 12 Chiefs games since Mahomes was drafted in 2017. They are 6-6 in those games and 110-30 in all other games. Blakeman’s regular-season crew led the NFL with 18.1 flags per game, but it’s worth noting that Blakeman himself threw only three flags for roughing the passer, tied for the second fewest in the league. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Bills 34 Chiefs 31
Moody’s pick: Bills 30, Chiefs 29
Walder’s pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 54.6% (by an average of 1.6 points)
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